Handicapping the Oscars: Final pass

I've spent the better part of the month catching up on the nominated films, and re-watching one or two more to get a better bearing on tomorrow night's show. Here is my revised list, with each category ranked in my order of preference:

Best picture

1. “Milk”
   
2. “Slumdog Millionaire”
   
3. “Frost/Nixon”
   
4. “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
   
5. “The Reader”
   

I finally got to see Benjamin Button on Valentine's Day, and was completely underwhelmed. It wasn't a bad movie, but there was no life to this story about a individual's life. It just lay there on the screen. It will win a slew of technical awards, and some artistic awards, like Cinmatography, but I list it fourth of five in the category.

Milk still gets my nod, because it was the best made picture, the story was so compelling, and the overall acting job by the cast was superb. It is also Gus Van Sant's best movie in years, combining his ability to tell a story with his more avante garde tendencies as a filmmaker. Slumdog is the favorite heading in, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a Best Picture/Best Director split.

Best Actor

1. Sean Penn in “Milk”
   
2. Mickey Rourke in “The Wrestler”
   
3. Frank Langella in “Frost/Nixon”
   
4. Richard Jenkins in “The Visitor”
   
5. Brad Pitt in “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
   

I've seen The Wrestler and the Visitor since my past pass at the Oscars. Rourke really does give an excellent performance as Randy The Ram, and Richard Jenkins' first leading role turned out to be spectacular. This category is studded with four performances worthy of the award. So who wins? I think it actually falls the way if should.

Pitt is out. His work in Benjamin Button is good but not nearly at the level of the other four performances. So we'll slot him fifth.

This was Jenkins' first time out of the box, and despite his excellent performance, he's outshined by actors with a better pedigree in the category. He could be a dark horse, but that's only if there's a split among voters between Pitt and Rourke.

Langella turned Nixon into a Napoleon on Elba in Frost/Nixon, breathing complexity and ambition into the disgraced politician. Any other year, he's a shoo-in favorite. This year, though, he's out of luck. Chris Connelly noted in a recent Bill Simmons podcast that Langella won a Tony for the role, which may make voters view this as a role and perforamnce already rewarded.

So Rourke vs. Penn. Either way is no travesty. I think Penn actually wins or delivering an excellent performance outside of his comfort zone. Rourke's also gone out of his way to say he doesn't care either way, which can be a turnoff to the ever-vain Oscar voters.

Best Actress 

No rankings
Anne Hathaway in “Rachel Getting Married” (Did Not See)
Angelina Jolie in “Changeling”(Did Not See)
Melissa Leo in “Frozen River”(Did Not See)
Meryl Streep in “Doubt”
Kate Winslet in “The Reader”

I can't rank my choices here because I haven't seen the Hathaway, Jolie or Leo films. It's too bad.  Of the two I've seen, I still will back Winslet.

Best Supporting Actor

1. Heath Ledger in “The Dark Knight”
   
2. Josh Brolin in “Milk”
   
3. Robert Downey Jr. in “Tropic Thunder”
   
4. Philip Seymour Hoffman in “Doubt”
   
5. Michael Shannon in “Revolutionary Road” (Did Not See)
   

I re-watched The Dark Knight, and I'm changing my call: Ledger wins, and not just because of his circumstances. He created one of the all-time great movie villains with His Joker. Brolin is deserving, but he'll have another shot soon. I still haven't seen Revolutionary Road, so no comment on Shannon's work.

Best Supporting Actress

1. Viola Davis in “Doubt”
   
2. Marisa Tomei in “The Wrestler”
   
3. Penélope Cruz in “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
   
4. Taraji P. Henson in “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
   
5. Amy Adams in “Doubt”
   

I've now seen all five performances. I'm going to stick with Viola Davis, even though there's so much buzz around Penelope Cruz. Davis wrung more emotion, complexity and depth in her short screen time than any of the other four performances nominated.

Vicky Cristina Barcelona was a bad film with a few good moments. When will the Boomer critics of the world finally admit that Wody Allen has lost his fastball, and it's never coming back?
And Penelope Cruz did good work with an utterly stereotyped role, but Rebecca Hall did more with her understated role as Vicky.

Marissa Tomei was good in The Wrestler, as was Henson in Benjamin Button, but neither was good enough to catch Davis.

Best Director

1. “Milk”, Gus Van Sant
   
2. “Slumdog Millionaire”, Danny Boyle
   
3. “Frost/Nixon”, Ron Howard
   
4. “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”, David Fincher
   
5. “The Reader”, Stephen Daldry
   

Seeing Button didn't change my feelings. Van Sant deserves the award, but could very well lose to Boyle without it being robbery. I'll repeat, watch for a split between these movies in the dirctor and best picture categories.